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Morgan Stanley: the Gold party is over

MS gold strategist sees bear factors building for gold, and lower her price forecasts for 2021-22. Her 2021e gold price forecast drops to $1,835/oz full-year average, followed by a further drop to $1,745/oz in 2022e. A vaccine would also enable the ex-China macroeconomic recovery to accelerate in 2021 creating the conditions in which monetary stimulus can begin to be tapered by the end of the year. MS’ rates strategists expect US fiscal policy to be less of a driver of real yields in 2021, given stimulus will be smaller scale and likely reactive rather than proactive. The steepening yield curve through 2020, with real 10-year rates steadily moving higher, should feed into weaker investment demand for gold, limiting the key upside catalyst for price…

Morgan Stanley: the Gold party is over
Source: Morgan Stanley

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