Silver Bull Market Just Getting Started, Could Accelerate Through Year-End
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As of July 24, 2025, spot silver closed at $39.05 per ounce, dipping 0.57% on the day but still up nearly 35% year-to-date—outperforming gold’s 28.5% gain over the same period. According to Maria Smirnova, Chief Investment Officer at Sprott Asset Management, the silver rally is far from over. A seven-year supply deficit and multiple demand catalysts could set the stage for an accelerated upside through the end of the year.
Structural Deficit: Dual Demand Drivers from Industry and Investment
In her mid-year outlook report, Smirnova noted that global silver demand has grown by 16% since 2016, while mine production has declined by 7%, creating a persistent supply-demand imbalance. “Industrial demand from green technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles continues to expand, while resurgent investment demand is further tilting the scales,” she said. Data shows that global silver ETF holdings surged 21% in the first half of 2025, with retail buying of bars and coins remaining strong in North America and Asia.
This supply-demand mismatch has led to a sharp drawdown in available inventories. The latest LBMA weekly report indicates exchange silver stocks have fallen 18% since the start of the year, hitting the lowest level since 2014. “Tighter market liquidity is making silver increasingly sensitive to marginal buying,” Smirnova emphasized. “Even small demand increments could trigger exponential price moves.”
Gold-Silver Ratio Hints at Further Upside, Historical Patterns Support Bullish Case
Although the gold-silver ratio has retreated from April highs above 100 to 86, it remains well above its historical median range of 50-60. “Silver’s ‘precious metal beta’ has yet to fully play out,” Smirnova explained. “Historically, silver rallies have been twice as strong as gold’s during bull markets.” This dynamic stems from silver’s smaller market size, higher volatility, and dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal.
Notably, physical premiums for silver have widened significantly. The U.S. Mint reports that 2025 American Eagle silver coins now carry a 32% premium—double last year’s level. Singapore-based dealer BullionStar noted that Asian investors are treating silver as “poor man’s gold,” hedging against inflation while betting on long-term growth in green energy applications.
Year-End Targets: Is $40 Just the Beginning?
Several institutions have revised their silver price targets upward. Goldman Sachs’ commodities team issued a three-month target of $42 in its July report, noting that “any rebound in manufacturing PMIs could trigger follow-through industrial buying.” From a technical perspective, silver’s weekly chart shows a classic cup-and-handle formation—a breakout above the $39.50 neckline could open the path toward $47.
However, short-term volatility risks remain. CFTC data reveals hedge funds’ net-long silver positions hit a three-year high as of July 16, prompting some analysts to warn of profit-taking pressure. Smirnova countered, “Pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities. With Fed rate cuts looming and geopolitical risks elevated, silver’s unique combination of defensive and growth attributes is hard to replicate.”
As the Northern Hemisphere’s traditional seasonal demand period approaches, this fundamentally driven silver bull market is gaining technical and sentimental momentum. For investors, the $39 level may mark not an endpoint, but the starting line for the next leg higher.