Xi May Have Miscalculated on Rare Earths

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China’s complex new rules take on the entire world at once—and give Trump an opportunity.

The current trade confrontation between the United States and China may look like a repeat of the episode from earlier this year: Washington has rolled out sky-high tariffs, while China has clamped down on the supply of rare earths. Many observers, reportedly including Chinese President Xi Jinping, expect the outcome will be the same, too: markets slide, American manufacturers warn of shuttered factories, and U.S. President Donald Trump backs down.

Yet if Trump plays his cards right, Xi may find he has miscalculated. Several big factors that hurt the United States in the spring are now playing in its favor. For starters, China’s complex new rules will be far harder to enforce than its earlier restrictions. The global scope of those rules also means that this time, it is Beijing, not Washington, that has escalated first—and done so by taking on the entire world at once. That gives the Trump administration a chance to build an international coalition, rather than facing one itself. Meanwhile, one of the main drivers of Trump’s earlier walk back, the U.S. bond market, is far more quiescent than it was in April.