Gold And Copper Set To Outperform As Oil Price To Lag Into 2026
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ING has released its latest set of commodities projections through to the end of 2026, with analysts highlighting gold and copper as the clear outperformers while Crude oil and natural gas continue to face pressure from abundant supply.
Gold Price Forecast: Elevated through mid-2026 before a slight year-end cooling
ING expects gold prices to hold near USD 4,000/oz in late 2025, rising to around USD 4,100/oz in early 2026 and peaking close to USD 4,200/oz by the second quarter.
The bank then anticipates gold to remain firm through the third quarter before easing slightly back to about USD 4,100/oz by the end of 2026.
This trajectory reflects expectations of lower real interest rates in the US, ongoing doubts about fiat-currency stability and continued central-bank buying, with Poland and South Korea highlighted as major recent accumulators.
Copper: Supported by structural demand and tight balances
ING’s copper outlook is similarly constructive.
Prices are projected to sit near USD 10,300 per tonne at the end of 2025, rising to around USD 10,500 per tonne in early 2026, and pushing up toward USD 10,700 per tonne by the second quarter.
The bank then sees prices stabilising around USD 10,500 per tonne through the second half of 2026.
The forecast reflects expectations that grid modernisation, electrification and renewable-energy infrastructure will keep demand firm against a backdrop of constrained supply.
Oil Price Forecast: A weaker profile as supply gluts dominate
For Brent crude, ING takes a notably more cautious stance. The bank sees prices close to USD 62 per barrel at the end of 2025, falling to USD 58 per barrel in early 2026, dipping to around USD 56 per barrel in the second quarter, and only partially recovering to USD 58 per barrel by Q3 before sliding again to about USD 54 per barrel by year-end.
A sustained supply glut—both in crude oil and natural gas—is expected to keep the energy complex under pressure throughout the period.
Silver: Following gold’s path, but with a softer finish
Silver prices are expected to trade near USD 49 per ounce through late 2025, rise modestly to around USD 49.5 to USD 50 per ounce in the first half of 2026, and then ease back toward USD 49.5 per ounce by the end of next year.