World Bank predicts metals price rise in 2026
The Washington-based institution says a spike in precious metals values is leading the way in an anticipated double-digit overall metals and minerals price increase in 2026.
The World Bank Group, Washington, has predicted that global metals and minerals prices will increase by 17 percent this year, part of its forecast for an overall average commodity price increase of 16 percent.
The forecast metals price increases are being “supported by strong demand, while precious metals prices are expected to surge by 42 percent to record highs,” writes World Bank.
The organization says if its forecast is correct it will mark the first annual overall increase in commodity values since 2022. The newest forecast also has its basket of commodity values rising “about 25 percent higher than anticipated in January 2026.”
Writes World Bank, “This baseline outlook hinges on continued supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly in energy and fertilizer markets, with prices expected to increase by 24 percent and 31 percent, respectively, in 2026.”
Contrasting with energy and metals prices, World Bank predicts agricultural commodity prices could decline by 6 percent this year, “as falling beverage prices more than offset gains in food prices.”
The lending organization characterizes commodity prices as highly volatile in the first quarter of 2026, led by energy price increases “driven by supply disruption concerns amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”
Continues World Bank, “Meanwhile, the metals and minerals price index remained elevated, reflecting tight markets for base metals, strong industrial demand and inelastic short-term production.”
The group says its metal and mineral price index rose 13 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and extended its gains in April, driven by mounting supply concerns tied to Israeli and United States attacks on Iran that spurred conflict in other parts of the Middle East.
“The impact of the conflict has been most pronounced for aluminum, given the region’s key role in global supply, with prices projected to increase by about 22 percent in 2026,” writes World Bank, also pointing to “strong gains” in the price of copper.
The global lender says its outlook reflects ongoing tight supplies, especially for aluminum and copper, coupled with what it calls robust industrial demand .
World Bank predicts metals and minerals prices will decline by 7 percent in 2027 as supply conditions normalize.
Concludes the group, “Risks remain skewed to the upside, including stronger-than-expected data center construction, prolonged supply disruptions (partly related to the Middle East conflict) and new trade restrictions. On the downside, weaker-than-expected global growth, particularly in China, could weigh on demand.”