Indonesia supply growth underpins nickel price, but Middle East conflict driving volatility – BMI

Research firm BMI – a Fitch Solutions Company – is revising its 2026 nickel price forecast to $16 600/t from $15 800/t previously, following an earlier upward out-of-cycle revision this year, reflecting a structurally firmer price environment despite expectations for prices to continue to moderate. In its latest ‘Outlook for nickel prices’ report, BMI explains that nickel prices traded at elevated levels in January, …

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Aluminium prices hit four-year high on Hormuz disruption risk

Aluminium prices rallied again on Monday, hitting their highest in over four years, as ongoing disruptions to flows along the Strait of Hormuz continued to alter the supply-demand balance. Failed peace talks between the US and Iran, and threats by president Donald Trump for a full blockade of the Strait, pushed three-month aluminium futures on the LME 1.7% higher to …

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Copper: From laggard to potential outperformer – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes Copper has turned into a top performer after being one of the weakest metals, pressured by rising LME stocks and mixed supply news. Possible stock sales and a Panama mine restart could cap prices near term, but sharply lower Chilean output suggests supply worries may dominate once growth fears ease, supporting higher Copper prices longer term. …

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Goldman warns on copper as war threatens global economy

Copper is vulnerable to further declines if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Goldman Sachs Group warned as metals markets brace for President Donald Trump‘s deadline for Iran to agree a deal or face sweeping attacks on civilian infrastructure. “We see the near-term risks as skewed to the downside if strait flows remain disrupted for longer than our base case, which would keep energy prices …

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Aluminium and War: Gulf outages tighten global balance – ING

Chinese exporters of aluminium products are now expected to have a much better year as the Iran war tightens global supply and boosts margins, with some earlier forecasts for flat shipments revised sharply higher. The Gulf accounted for roughly 9% of global supply before the war but most of that has been trapped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, …

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Copper-Aluminum Divergence Unveils The Complex War Impact

Four weeks in, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has evolved into one of the most severe recent energy shocks, according to the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Beyond the humanitarian toll, the conflict is disrupting global trade flows, driving volatility in oil and commodity markets, and amplifying inflation risks. In response, these institutions have formed a coordinated …

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Indonesia bets on nickel levy to break its China habit

New nickel export tax is Indonesia’s boldest move yet to cut Chinese smelter dependence and climb the global value chain. Indonesia’s sweeping nickel downstreaming policy, launched in 2020, is entering a more consequential phase. Having successfully halted raw ore exports, the government is now preparing to deploy a more assertive instrument: an additional export levy on processed nickel products. Energy …

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Copper has held up to Middle East pressure but UBS says recession risk looms

Copper prices have proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the Middle East conflict, but UBS warns the metal has only just begun to price in the risk of weaker global demand. A full-blown recession could push prices sharply lower, the Swiss bank said. Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) briefly dipped below $12,000 per metric ton before steadying, a …

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BlackRock World Mining beats benchmarks as gold, copper plays pay off

BlackRock World Mining Trust smashed its comparative benchmark with returns over 2025 after a “very strong year”, and noted a “supportive” backdrop for the mining sector despite current macro uncertainty and geopolitical volatility. Net asset value per share (NAV) total return for the year was 74.2%, compared with returns from the reference index (MSCI ACWI Metals & Mining) of 64.2% and …

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