JPMorgan Sees Gold Surging to $6,000 by Year-End

Gold may be treading water for now, but JPMorgan expects the precious metal to regain its momentum and average $6,000 an ounce in the fourth quarter, supported by central-bank demand, geopolitical tensions and concerns about inflation and U.S. fiscal policy.

J.P. Morgan Global Research expects gold to rise to an average of $5,300 in the third quarter before reaching $6,000 in the final three months of 2026. It sees prices climbing to $6,200 in early 2027 and reaching $6,300 later next year.

The bank expects gold to average $5,243 for all of 2026 and $6,263 in 2027.

Those forecasts were lowered from estimates released in February, but they remain well above recent prices. Gold recently touched a 2026 low of $4,170 after peaking in late January and has since traded largely sideways.

On Friday morning, spot gold rose ‌1.6% to $4,385.14 per ounce.

“Gold is stuck in a bit of a technical no-man’s land,” said Greg Shearer, JPMorgan’s head of base and precious metals.

Gold has been trading above its 200-day moving average of about $4,340 but below its 50-day moving average near $4,730. Shearer said worries that the Federal Reserve could respond to energy-driven inflation with interest-rate increases have temporarily pushed gold “to the back burner” for many investors.

Yet the longer-term forces supporting bullion remain intact, JPMorgan said. They include persistent inflation risks, erosion in purchasing power, concerns about the U.S. budget and national debt, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty surrounding American policy.

The conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States has complicated the near-term outlook by pushing up energy prices, inflation expectations and bond yields. At the same time, the conflict reinforces many of the risks that have encouraged investors and governments to diversify into gold.

“These themes are on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict, which removes some of the tail risks for energy prices, inflation and yields,” Shearer said.

Central-bank purchases remain a critical part of JPMorgan’s bullish case.

From 2021 through 2025, central banks bought an average of 225 metric tons of gold per quarter, roughly twice their average quarterly purchases between 2016 and 2020.

Reported purchases appeared to slow sharply early this year. Central banks disclosed net purchases of only 16 tons in the first quarter, while reported sales reached 129 tons, including 60 tons sold by Turkey in March.

But the official figures may significantly understate demand because central banks are not required to disclose all their gold purchases to the International Monetary Fund.

Using activity in London’s over-the-counter market and trade flows from Swiss refineries, the World Gold Council estimates that central banks actually bought 244 tons in the first quarter, up from 208 tons in the final three months of 2025.

China appears to be one of the biggest buyers.

Chinese net gold imports surged to 317 tons during the first quarter, nearly three times the amount imported in the previous quarter, Shearer said.

The People’s Bank of China also accelerated its disclosed purchases. After buying about 1 ton a month during the six months through February, the central bank purchased 5 tons in March and 8 tons in April.

China’s buying may be part of a long-term effort to reduce its exposure to dollar-denominated assets and strengthen the renminbi as an alternative reserve currency.

The freezing of Russian central-bank assets in 2022 demonstrated that foreign reserves held in dollars can be vulnerable to U.S. sanctions, giving governments another reason to diversify into gold.

Chinese insurers could provide another powerful source of demand.

China’s 10 largest insurance companies received permission in early 2025 to invest as much as 1% of their assets in physical gold. A full 1% allocation would have represented demand for roughly 200 tons at the time.

Industry observers believe the limit eventually could rise as high as 5%. Because insurers are not yet required to disclose their gold positions, their purchases could be larger than markets realize.

The chief risk to JPMorgan’s bullish outlook would be an unexpectedly resilient U.S. economy combined with accelerating inflation, prompting the Fed to begin a sustained series of interest-rate increases.

Higher yields can hurt gold because bullion pays no interest, making Treasurys and money-market funds relatively more attractive.

Shearer, however, said such a scenario remains “a high bar.” Unless strong employment and worsening inflation push the Fed into an extended tightening cycle, JPMorgan expects gold’s structural supports to prevail — carrying prices toward $6,000 this year and potentially $6,300 in 2027.