Japan fears new rare earth squeeze as China tensions deepen

When China broke out one of its “big guns” in last year’s trade war with the US – an array of export controls on rare earth elements – it helped spur a temporary truce in the pitched conflict between the two economic superpowers.

After Beijing’s announcement, many around the world expressed shock at the size and scope of China’s response to Washington’s sky-high tariffs. But for Japan, a squeeze on rare earth shipments was not so novel a concept.

In 2010, following the collision of a Chinese fishing trawler with Japanese patrol boats near the disputed Diaoyu Islands and the detention of the trawler’s captain, Beijing threatened “severe countermeasures”. Some Japanese businesses began to report their supplies of the critical minerals, largely sourced from China, had slowed or stopped entirely.

And while Beijing was adamant it had not enacted a ban or restriction on rare earth exports to its neighbour, prevailing perception in Japan was that China had carried out an unofficial cutback on shipments – a stance given credibility by a broader reduction in rare earth exports which had taken effect earlier in the year.

Now, with relations between Beijing and Tokyo at another low point, Japanese industries dependent on the minerals again fear their shipments will be delayed or halted.

Substantial bilateral channels have yet to be formed to address specific commercial and trade concerns, analysts and observers said, despite the two nations continuing to maintain a certain framework for diplomatic dialogue, including at the leader and ministerial levels.“In the field of critical minerals, including rare earths, there is a growing perception that practical communication regarding export controls and licensing procedures has become less transparent than before,” said Kunihiko Shinoda, a professor at the Tokyo-based National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS).

Still, “any instability in their [heavy rare earth] supply therefore constitutes a major economic security concern for Japan”, Shinoda warned.

Tomasz Nadrowski, an investor focusing on critical minerals and author of the book Mineral War, said Chinese officials “avoided” meetings with their Japanese counterparts in March at an Asian Development Bank summit in Kazakhstan.At a meeting of trade ministers under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, held last week in east China’s Suzhou, no formal bilateral talks were arranged between representatives of the two countries. While Japanese Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa did reveal he had a brief conversation before a dinner ‌on May 22 with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, he did not disclose any further details.

The protracted diplomatic row between Beijing and Tokyo began on November 7, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a hypothetical attack on Taiwan could constitute an “existential threat” warranting a military response under the limitations of the country’s pacifist constitution.

After months of heated rhetoric, Beijing took action in January, levying an explicit ban on the export of products with both commercial and military applications to end users linked to the Japanese military. This included, among other items, rare earth elements and the permanent magnets produced with the minerals.

The tension escalated in February, with 20 Japanese entities – including subsidiaries of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and IHI – being put on its export control list, with 20 more on a watch list.

He Yadong, the Ministry of Commerce’s spokesperson, said at a regular press conference on May 28 that the Chinese government implemented export controls on key minerals such as rare earths in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviewed licence applications for compliant civilian use.

“The current serious difficulties in China-Japan relations stem from the erroneous words and actions of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the responsibility lies entirely with the Japanese side,” he added.

“We urge the Japanese side to face the root cause of the issue, earnestly reflect on and correct its mistakes, as well as create the necessary conditions for normal exchanges between China and Japan.” Japan-bound shipments of permanent magnets, the most powerful of which contain rare earth elements, plunged 27 per cent year on year to 184 tonnes in March.