Lithium deficit strains investments of US$15.9bn in Latin America

A group of 27 lithium projects, including greenfield and brownfield developments in Latin America, involving investments of US$15.9 billion, are expected to start production, expand or increase processing rates between this year and 2030, amid growing pressure on global supply.

The portfolio aims to supply a market showing signs of a deficit projected between 2026 and 2035, creating a challenging scenario for the electric vehicle battery and energy storage industries, according to investment bank Canaccord Genuity.

Beyond disruptions such as the restriction on concentrate exports in Zimbabwe since February, the cancellation of licenses in Jiangxi by Chinese regulators, and the lower projected output by Australian company IGO, analysts warn of a lack of long-term investment to generate new supply capacity. 

Chile is part of this picture, and its national lithium strategy, which gives the State a leading role, has slowed the arrival of capital to hydrogeological mining, creating a short-term gap in new projects, beyond expansions by SQM (Nova Andino in partnership with state-owned Codelco) and Albemarle.

Derek Chubb, mining industry leader for ERM, told BNamericas that countries are seeking to play a more active role in the development of strategic resources, such as lithium, which is fundamental for the energy systems of the future. 

“Governments want to ensure that their development is aligned with national priorities, a greater prominence that can provide alignment and a long-term vision, but this must be accompanied by clarity, consistency, and efficiency.”

Chile, Argentina and Bolivia make up the lithium triangle, which concentrates more than 60% of the world’s reserves, positioning South America as a key player in the supply of the strategic metal.

However, of the 27 initiatives with start-up scheduled by 2030, including expansions and optimizations, 19 correspond to Argentina, with investments of US$12.770bn, according to BNamericas’ database.

In Chile, SQM is expanding the capacity of its Carmen chemical plant, while the Errázuriz group and the Singapore fund Simbalík are driving a US$600 million (mn) project in the Maricunga salt flat, and Clean Tech is seeking for Laguna Verde to start production in mid-2029.

In Bolivia, state-owned YLB maintains an alliance with Uranium One to implement direct lithium extraction in the Uyuni salt flat, with a target of 14.000t/a of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) from 2028. In Peru, American Lithium Corp plans to invest more than US$847 millones in Falchani to produce 30.000t/a of LCE by early 2029. 

In Brazil, meanwhile, three initiatives are being prepared that are expected to begin production between 2026 and 2027, which are part of the group analyzed by BNamericas. 

Below is a list of ten projects that will be the next to join a regional industry called upon to support the development of clean energies and advanced technologies.